Predicting spatially heterogeneous invasive spread: Pyracantha angustifolia invading a dry Andean valley in northern Argentina

Abstract Understanding the drivers of invasive species spread is key to designing optimal management programmes for controlling them. Population models, parameterized from demographic and dispersal data, are useful simulating invasion when long-term observations lacking, which particularly important invasions occurring rapidly. We aimed understand how Pyracantha angustifolia (an ornamental shrub) influenced by heterogeneity in local conditions within a dry inter-montane valley northwestern Argentina that currently experiencing rapid urban expansion concomitant reduction cattle farming. Field surveys demonstrated individuals growing shrublands have higher fecundity than those grassland rocky habitats. Furthermore, grazing pressure horses substantially reduces impacts relationship between age fecundity. incorporated our field-estimated habitat age-specific fecundities into both analytical integro-difference equation models individual-based predict rates across each type presence or absence pressure. Results indicate rate would be (by up 33%) highlight can, through direct consumption seeds livestock, depress 53%). These results suggest shrubland areas most vulnerable may help reduce impact Pyracantha. This suggests synergism domestic livestock density contributes an this environment.